Oil a-la

Well here I am with another ramble of my overactive mind. Islamabad is facing perhaps its worst month if not year of instability, violence and general uneasiness.

The question that arises in my mind is "Is this all the fault of the Madrassah's/Talibanization or is there something more brewing here?"

The second question that comes to mind is "how did the last seven years of general optimism and liberalism end up in two sides of the same coin at loggerheads with one another?

Well here’s how my theory goes:

The US hunger for Oil is infamous in its background and has led to many dubious wars fought over one pretext or another. Who appointed USA as the policeman of the world I cannot recall however if there’s a problem in the Middle East, USA is eager to help. If there’s a problem in Iraq, call the USA. If the Afghans are having issues (created thanks to the US) call the USA. And now there are problems in Pakistan . . . guess who is already here but acting like they are likely to be called. The good ol USA!

Here’s my list of common denominators for all these locations:

US oil prices have had their peaks in 1980, 1986, 1991, and 2001 and most recently in 2005. (source Deloitte research)

And now for global events of the same dates: Afghan war began in Dec 1979 and ended in 1989 with the USSR breaking in 1990. Iraq invades Kuwait in 1990.Afghan Taliban-US war 2001 and ironically Osama is in Pakistan now.

A recent quote from Washington post posted by my friend Ali states "President Bush must order targeted strikes or covert actions by American forces, as he has done several times in recent years. Such actions run the risk of further destabilizing Pakistan. Yet those risks must be weighed against the consequences of another large-scale attack on U.S. soil."

What’s with this preemptive shit people??

Here’s my take on the afghan war that leads to the next possible action/operation we are bound to see:

USSR is broken up so that the now liberated Central Russian oil and gas can be sold to/bought by the highest consumer. (That possible means this shit was in the ropes since a loooong time back; referring to the first afghan conflict in 1979). All the big names we so familiarly hear these days were the small fries then but somehow are the big fish that are coordinating all sorts of crap around the world. Then came the Middle East oil reserves. This was the much needed fuel to bring the prices of oil from around 50+ USD to a low of 15 or less (the lowest it’s ever been since 1973). Now with the Russian states liberated all that is needed is a channel to ship the oil out from there to the good ol USA. As the direct route is through Afghanistan, what we find is the land locked geography of this piece of Asia with the only accessible way through Pakistan via Gwadar. A little footnote here to check out is the Pakistan-India conflicts some years back which nearly brought us to the brink of war twice.

Well that’s my take . . . they need the tribal belt stabilized (that’s the politically correct word for “finish the tribal problem”) so that a pipeline can be extended down to the Indian Ocean so that another tap of black gold may be opened for the good ol USA.

p.s. this all would go to shit if someone were to invent a stable nuclear cell to power our industry and transport in the next few years

p.s.s. in case I go missing you know I hit some nerves on this theory